Quantitative Projections from a Data-Driven Oddsmaker (MLB, NFL & NBA)
Welcome to the sports betting projection hub at MavenSports.io — a toolset built to mimic how a sharp oddsmaker prices games.
This isn’t a tip sheet. It’s the raw output of a custom, machine-learning oddsmaker model that simulates every MLB and NBA matchup to generate true win probabilities, fair odds, and edge values.
If you’re building your own model, looking to exploit inefficiencies, or just reverse-engineering the market, this is your data-native launchpad.
New to the site? Get to know MavenSports.io →
🧠 How This Oddsmaker Sports Betting Model Works
Our system is designed to simulate what a quantitative bookmaker would produce behind the curtain.
Inputs:
- Player & team-level performance data (historical and current)
- Advanced metrics: expected runs, shot quality, pace, etc.
- Market baselines: Pinnacle opening lines (overnight)
- Contextual modifiers: travel, back-to-backs, lineup news, injury impact
Outputs:
- Win Probabilities for each team
- Fair Odds derived from win% (using no-vig math)
- Edge % — how much value exists vs. the current market price
⚙️ Using the Data Like a Quant Oddsmaker
Treat this page as a modeling sandbox. Here’s how to extract maximum value:
- Compare Our Fair Odds to Market Lines: This is pure line evaluation — no guesswork.
- Look at the Edge Column:
- +3% or more = statistically relevant value
- 0–1% = market is too sharp — pass
- Blend It Into Your Workflow: Use it to validate your models, price shop, or flag suspicious line moves.
NFL Week 2 projections
| away | home | quarterbacks | market ml | imp | ml edge% | spread | spr price | spr edge | total | ojuice | t_edge |
| Detroit Lions | Buffalo Bills | Jared Goff / Josh Allen | DET +190 | DET 32,3% / BUF 67,7% | DET +3,2% / BUF -3,2% | -4,5 | -110 | -0,6 | 54 | -110 | 0,8 |
| Green Bay Packers | New York Jets | Jordan Love / Geno Smith | GB -185 | GB 63,1% / NYJ 36,9% | GB +3,6% / NYJ -3,6% | 4 | 100 | -1,4 | 44,5 | -110 | 2,5 |
| Minnesota Vikings | Chicago Bears | Carson Wentz / Caleb Williams | MIN +210 | MIN 30,6% / CHI 69,4% | MIN +2,1% / CHI -2,1% | -5,5 | -110 | -0,5 | 48,5 | -110 | -0,4 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | New England Patriots | Aaron Rodgers / Drake Maye | PIT +200 | PIT 30,6% / NE 69,4% | PIT +5,3% / NE -5,3% | -5 | -110 | -1,4 | 41,5 | -110 | 0,8 |
| Carolina Panthers | Atlanta Falcons | Bryce Young / Michael Penix | ATL +120 | CAR 54,1% / ATL 45,9% | CAR -10,2% / ATL +10,2% | 2,5 | -110 | 3,7 | 43,5 | -110 | 2,5 |
| Cleveland Browns | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Deshaun Watson / Baker Mayfield | CLE +375 | CLE 18,5% / TB 81,5% | CLE +2,8% / TB -2,8% | -8,5 | -110 | 0,6 | 41 | -110 | 3,9 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | Houston Texans | Joe Burrow / C.J. Stroud | HOU -145 | CIN 43,3% / HOU 56,7% | CIN -4,4% / HOU +4,4% | -2,5 | -110 | 1,7 | 46,5 | -110 | 0,4 |
| New Orleans Saints | Baltimore Ravens | Tyler Shough / Lamar Jackson | BAL -420 | NO 17,9% / BAL 82,1% | NO -1,6% / BAL +1,6% | -8,5 | -110 | 3 | 47 | -110 | 0,9 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | Tennessee Titans | Jalen Hurts / Cam Ward | PHI -320 | PHI 74,9% / TEN 25,1% | PHI +3,7% / TEN -3,7% | 7 | 100 | -3,2 | 39 | -110 | 2,8 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | Los Angeles Chargers | Kirk Cousins / Justin Herbert | LAC -300 | LV 24,4% / LAC 75,6% | LV -3,1% / LAC +3,1% | -6,5 | -110 | 2,2 | 43,5 | -110 | -0,5 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Denver Broncos | Trevor Lawrence / Bo Nix | JAC +130 | JAC 42,9% / DEN 57,1% | JAC +3,1% / DEN -3,1% | -2,5 | -120 | -0,8 | 45,5 | -110 | -0,6 |
| Washington Commanders | Dallas Cowboys | Jayden Daniels / Dak Prescott | WAS +190 | WAS 33,5% / DAL 66,5% | WAS +3,8% / DAL -3,8% | -4 | -110 | -0,3 | 50,5 | -110 | 5,5 |
| Seattle Seahawks | Arizona Cardinals | Sam Darnold / Jacoby Brissett | SEA -215 | SEA 67,8% / ARI 32,2% | SEA +3,5% / ARI -3,5% | 4,5 | -110 | -1,9 | 41 | -110 | 2,5 |
| Miami Dolphins | San Francisco 49ers | Malik Willis / Brock Purdy | MIA +675 | MIA 10,5% / SF 89,5% | MIA +2,9% / SF -2,9% | -13 | -110 | 1,2 | 45,5 | -110 | 3,1 |
| Indianapolis Colts | Kansas City Chiefs | Daniel Jones / Patrick Mahomes | KC -300 | IND 24,7% / KC 75,3% | IND -1,5% / KC +1,5% | -6,5 | -105 | 1,5 | 46,5 | -110 | 2,2 |
| New York Giants | Los Angeles Rams | Jaxson Dart / Matthew Stafford | LAR -340 | NYG 23,9% / LAR 76,1% | NYG -1,6% / LAR +1,6% | -7 | -105 | 2 | 48 | -110 | 0,6 |
MLB Daily Projections 09/16
| away | home | starters | market ml | imp | edge% | total | ojuice | t_edge% |
| Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | Anthony Kay / Parker Messick | CHW +150 | CHW 38,7% / CLE 61,3% | CHW +1,3% / CLE -1,3% | 7,5 | -115 | -5,6 |
| San Francisco Giants | St. Louis Cardinals | Anthony Molina* / Matthew Liberatore | SFG +135 | SFG 41,1% / STL 58,9% | SFG +0,2% / STL -0,2% | 8,5 | 115 | -6,4 |
| New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins | Carlos Rodón / Zebby Matthews | MIN +127 | NYY 57,0% / MIN 43,0% | NYY -4,4% / MIN +4,4% | 7,5 | -120 | 10,9 |
| Detroit Tigers | Toronto Blue Jays | Keider Montero / Max Scherzer | DET +111 | DET 46,7% / TOR 53,3% | DET +2,4% / TOR -2,4% | 8,5 | 100 | -1,3 |
| Athletics | Tampa Bay Rays | Brady Basso / Nick Martinez | ATH +161 | ATH 37,2% / TBR 62,8% | ATH +2,1% / TBR -2,1% | 7,5 | -134 | 3,6 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | Pittsburgh Pirates | Logan Henderson / Jared Jones | PIT +119 | MIL 55,4% / PIT 44,6% | MIL -4,1% / PIT +4,1% | 7,5 | -104 | 4,8 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | Cincinnati Reds | Blake Snell / Andrew Abbott | CIN +178 | LAD 64,6% / CIN 35,4% | LAD -4,1% / CIN +4,1% | 8,5 | -104 | 1,8 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals | Zack Wheeler / Jared Simpson | WSN +170 | PHI 63,3% / WSN 36,7% | PHI -4,2% / WSN +4,2% | 8,5 | -107 | 3,2 |
| Baltimore Orioles | New York Mets | Chris Bassitt / Robert Stock | NYM -134 | BAL 43,8% / NYM 56,2% | BAL -2,2% / NYM +2,2% | 8,5 | -115 | 1,8 |
| Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs | JR Ritchie / Shota Imanaga | CHC -136 | ATL 44,1% / CHC 55,9% | ATL -0,2% / CHC +0,2% | 7,5 | -120 | -1 |
| Boston Red Sox | Texas Rangers | Jake Bennett / MacKenzie Gore | TEX -104 | BOS 49,5% / TEX 50,5% | BOS -0,9% / TEX +0,9% | 7,5 | -120 | 1,2 |
| Kansas City Royals | Houston Astros | Daniel Lynch IV / Cristian Javier | KCR +125 | KCR 43,4% / HOU 56,6% | KCR +0,9% / HOU -0,9% | 8,5 | -115 | 0,4 |
| San Diego Padres | Colorado Rockies | Robbie Ray / Mason Adams | COL +150 | SDP 60,9% / COL 39,1% | SDP -6,3% / COL +6,3% | 11,5 | 104 | -9 |
| Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Angels | George Kirby / Yusei Kikuchi | LAA +118 | SEA 54,9% / LAA 45,1% | SEA -1,5% / LAA +1,5% | 7,5 | -125 | 8,6 |
| Miami Marlins | Arizona Diamondbacks | Ryan Gusto / Merrill Kelly | ARI -126 | MIA 45,3% / ARI 54,7% | MIA -1,1% / ARI +1,1% | 9,5 | 116 | -1 |
Other recommended US-friendly bookmakers:
Sportsbetting.ag. Everygame.eu, MyBookie
🧠 Behind the Model: From Market to Machine
We built this projection engine to mirror how modern oddsmakers think:
- Market as signal → sharp lines anchor the model
- Model as simulation → game dynamics drive probabilities
- Player input → Adjustments based on starting pitcher quality, lineup shifts, and real-world nuance
Our model is validated against closing line value and historical return on equity over multi-season datasets.
Got more questions? Check out our FAQ →
